Futures of Ferrous Metals Series Pull Back, Dragging SS Down in Sync; Cost Support Remains Firm, Stainless Steel Spot Prices Hold Steady [SMM Stainless Steel Daily Report]

Published: Sep 11, 2025 17:53

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[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review: Ferrous Futures Pullback Dragged SS Lower, Cost Support Remained Firm and Stainless Steel Spot Prices Were Largely Stable] SMM, Sep. 11: SS futures continued to be in the doldrums. The overall weakness in ferrous metals futures further dragged SS futures lower, with prices trading below 12,900 yuan/mt for most of the day. In the spot market, the lower futures prices led downstream end-users to remain cautious and adopt a wait-and-see attitude, with just-in-time procurement dominating the market, and spot market transactions remained sluggish. However, transaction prices for high-grade NPI moved higher during the day, and the ferrochrome market also remained strong. Additionally, just-in-time procurement increased as the peak season began. Although acceptance of high-priced cargoes remained low, traders were relatively optimistic about the market outlook, and offers were largely stable during the day. Social inventory fell further this week, down 1.75% WoW to 902,600 mt. In futures, the most-traded contract SS2510 was in the doldrums. At 10:30 a.m., SS2510 was quoted at 12,895 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 325-625 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was 8,100 yuan/mt; the average price for cold-rolled mill-edge 304/2B coil was 13,200 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 13,200 yuan/mt in Foshan; the price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil was 25,825 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 25,825 yuan/mt in Foshan; the price for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil was 25,300 yuan/mt in both regions...

SMM September 11, SS futures continued to be in the doldrums. The ferrous metals series futures weakened overall, further dragging down SS futures, which traded below 12,900 yuan/mt for most of the day. Spot market, driven by the lower futures, downstream end-users remained cautious and watchful, with just-in-time procurement dominating the market, and spot market transactions remained sluggish. However, transaction prices for high-grade NPI rose further during the day, coupled with the strong ferrochrome market and increased just-in-time procurement since the peak season began. Although acceptance of high-priced cargoes remained low, traders remained relatively optimistic about the outlook, with most quotations largely stable during the day. This week, social inventory fell further, down 1.75% WoW, to 902,600 mt.

Futures side, the most-traded contract 2510 was in the doldrums. At 10:30 a.m., SS2510 was quoted at 12,895 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Wuxi spot 304/2B premiums/discounts ranged from 325-625 yuan/mt. In the spot market, Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil averaged 8,100 yuan/mt; cold-rolled mill-edge 304/2B coil averaged 13,200 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 13,200 yuan/mt in Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil was 25,825 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 25,825 yuan/mt in Foshan; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil was 25,300 yuan/mt in both locations; cold-rolled 430/2B coil was 7,550 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan.

The market officially entered the September-October peak season, a traditional consumption peak. The stainless steel industry widely expects prices to trend upward this month. Although current transactions remain significantly constrained by futures fluctuations, overall demand has strengthened notably compared to earlier periods. Stainless steel social inventory fell for the ninth consecutive week, with inventory levels pulling back to February levels. Additionally, cost side, rising prices for high-carbon ferrochrome and high-grade NPI further pushed up stainless steel production costs. However, driven by optimistic expectations, September stainless steel planned production is expected to increase further, putting considerable pressure on downstream end-users’ digestion capacity. Meanwhile, the market remains heavily influenced by macro policies and futures, with uncertainty still high. The subsequent trend will depend on the pace of demand recovery and the actual realization of macro tailwinds.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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